NYT
We will never know just how wrong we were about Donald Trump.
Did
he have a 1 percent chance to win when he descended the escalator of
Trump Tower last June? Twenty percent? Or should we have known all
along?
Was Mr. Trump’s victory a black swan,
the electoral equivalent of World War I or the Depression: an unlikely
event with complex causes, some understood at the time but others
overlooked, that came together in unexpected ways to produce a result
that no one could have reasonably anticipated?
Or
did we simply underestimate Mr. Trump from the start? Did we discount
him because we assumed that voters would never nominate a reality-TV
star for president, let alone a provocateur with iconoclastic policy
views like his? Did we put too much stock in “the party decides,” a theory about the role of party elites in influencing the outcome of the primary process?
The answer, as best I can tell, is all of the above.
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